International Monetary Fund has revised its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh, projecting a 4.5% growth for the current fiscal year, a sharp drop from its earlier estimate of 6.6%. This marks the lowest growth rate in nearly two decades, excluding the pandemic-affected year. The downgrade follows similar adjustments by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF cited persistent inflationary pressures as a key factor, predicting inflation in Bangladesh will rise to 10.7% in FY25, up from 9.7% in FY24. Despite this, IMF remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting a recovery to 7.7% GDP growth by FY26, with inflation easing to 5.6%.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provisionally reported last year’s growth at 5.82%, with the IMF predicting a slight decline to 5.4% in FY24. The World Bank has also downgraded its outlook for Bangladesh to 4% growth for FY25, attributing the adjustment to political instability and economic uncertainties. Similarly, the ADB cut its growth forecast to 5.1%, citing the impact of recent political unrest and floods.
Globally, the IMF expects growth to remain stable at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining but risks rising due to potential conflicts, prolonged tight monetary policies, and economic slowdowns in key regions.
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