VinaCapital projects Vietnam’s economy to grow at approximately 6.5% in 2025, driven by increased government infrastructure spending, a recovering real estate market, and rising domestic consumption. However, challenges such as declining export growth—due to factors like a softening U.S. economy, reduced inventory restocking, and lower demand in Asia—are expected to impact GDP, especially in the first half of the year.
Vietnam’s manufacturing output growth is forecast to drop from 10% in 2024 to 6% in 2025, primarily due to weaker export demand, potentially reducing GDP growth by 1 percentage point. Real retail sales growth remains below historical levels at 6%, but infrastructure spending is projected to rise significantly by 15-20% to $31 billion, which could boost consumer confidence.
Despite initial economic challenges, aggressive government measures are anticipated to support growth, leading to subdued performance early in 2025 and strong acceleration later in the year.
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