October saw a general decline in global cotton prices, influenced by fluctuations in futures markets. The Cotlook A Index reached its lowest since July at 93.20 cents per lb on October 23. Zhengzhou futures in China also fell, with January contracts ending the month at their lowest point since May. Physical market activity slowed as volatility led to caution among buyers and sellers. However, select purchases were made in the Far East and South Asia, with Bangladesh and Pakistan increasing imports of Brazilian, Indian, and U.S. cotton. In China, over 60% of U.S. upland cotton exports registered between late September and October went to Chinese buyers, signaling eased restrictions on Australian cotton imports.
In the U.S., USDA’s cotton production forecast was reduced to 12.8 million bales due to low Texas yields, while world ending stocks for 2023/24 were adjusted down by 10 million bales. Northern Hemisphere harvests progressed, with favorable conditions in Pakistan but lower-quality output due to rain and pests. India’s estimated crop yield shows a decrease, reflecting a 7.5% decline from last year’s levels. Global production for 2023/24 was revised down by 95,000 tonnes, with U.S. and Australian output reductions offsetting increases in regions like Argentina. Meanwhile, global cotton consumption forecasts dropped by 575,000 tonnes, attributed to decreased demand in Turkey, China, Indonesia, and the Indian subcontinent.
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