ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the region to grow by 4.2% in 2025, maintaining its 2024 growth rate but slightly below the previous 4.4% projection. Strong domestic demand and exports will support growth, though rising trade tensions—especially higher US tariffs on China—may dampen external demand.
The Plus-3 economies (China, Japan, and Korea) are expected to grow by 4.0% in 2025, while ASEAN economies are projected to expand by 4.8%, being less affected by tariffs. Inflation, which moderated to 1.7% in 2024, is expected to rise slightly to 2.1% in 2025 due to recovering domestic demand and supply-side adjustments, though risks remain from global commodity prices and adverse weather.
Uncertainties surrounding US monetary policy, trade tensions, and potential policy shifts—including tax cuts and tariff hikes—could impact financial conditions for the region. While some ASEAN+3 central banks are easing monetary policy amid declining inflation, US interest rate expectations may complicate policy decisions.
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