The USDA has adjusted its global cotton production forecast upward to 113 million bales, driven by increased imports and consumption, particularly in China and India. Despite a decrease in US production, global output remains robust, primarily due to significant increases in India. World trade is on the rise, buoyed by China’s heightened imports, while US cotton exports remain steady.
The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reveals an increase of 130,000 bales of 480 pounds in the forecast for world cotton production compared to the February 2024 report, which estimated world cotton production at 112.82 million bales. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, world cotton imports have risen from 42.88 million bales to 43.23 million bales.
The report also indicates a rise in the forecast for domestic consumption to 113 million bales this month from 112.46 million bales in February 2024. Cotton exports are projected to reach 43.26 million bales, up from 42.87 million bales in the previous month. However, world ending stocks are expected to decline to 83.34 million bales in March 2024 from 83.70 million bales.
US cotton production estimates have been revised down to 12.10 million bales from 12.43 million bales in the previous month. Nevertheless, cotton exports from the US remain consistent at 12.30 million bales, providing crucial insights into the global cotton market. While lower crops in the US and Argentina are offset by a 500,000-bale increase in India, world production sees an uptick. Global consumption also rises by nearly 500,000 bales, with China and India driving the gains, offsetting lower estimates for Turkiye and other smaller countries.
World trade sees an increase of approximately 400,000 bales, largely due to China’s raised imports for 2023-24, which surpass lower estimates for Turkiye and several smaller countries. Exports are expected to rise for India, Australia, and Turkiye.
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