Bangladesh and Vietnam are poised to become the key drivers of global cotton trade over the next ten years, as their textile industries expand mill usage for export-oriented garment production, according to the latest OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025‑2034, released on July 15.
The report forecasts that global cotton trade will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6%, reaching 12.3 million tons by 2034. This growth is primarily fueled by the rising demand for textiles in Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Bangladesh, where mill use is rapidly increasing.
Bangladesh is projected to account for 18% of global raw cotton imports by 2034, with imports rising 2.4% annually. The country currently consumes more than 1.7 million tons of cotton each year and relies on imports for over three-fourths of its total requirement.
The report further projects global raw cotton consumption to grow at 1.2% per year, driven by increased textile demand in middle- and low-income countries. Asia will remain the epicenter of cotton processing, with expansion led by Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India due to their competitive labor and production costs.
Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to each consume 8% of the world’s cotton, while China’s share will shrink, though it will continue to be the largest single consumer at 30%, followed by India at 22% by 2034.
The decline in China’s dominance is attributed to rising labor costs, stricter labor and environmental regulations, and the removal of a state-backed support price system in 2014, which triggered a shift in cotton processing to countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam.
According to the OECD and FAO, the end of the Multifiber Arrangement in 2005 accelerated the rise of Bangladesh and Vietnam as global textile hubs, aided by abundant labor, low production costs, and government support. The EU’s duty-free access under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) has also played a significant role in Bangladesh’s emergence as a top exporter of knitted and woven garments.
Mill use in Vietnam is expected to grow the fastest over the next decade at 2.7% annually, followed by Bangladesh at 2.1%. On the supply side, global cotton production is projected to grow by 1.3% annually, reaching 29.5 million tons by 2034, primarily due to improved yields. India is set to overtake China as the world’s largest cotton producer, driven by yield gains. Brazil and the United States will follow, maintaining similar production levels.
As major exporters, the U.S. and Brazil are expected to meet the rising demand from Asian textile producers, remaining the top two global cotton exporters through 2034.
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