Bangladesh’s economic growth is expected to remain moderate over the next two fiscal years, with the International Monetary Fund projecting GDP expansion of 4.7% in FY26, followed by a further slowdown to 4.3% in FY27.
The FY26 growth forecast remains unchanged from the IMF’s January outlook, indicating a steady but cautious recovery trajectory for the economy.
On the inflation front, the IMF has slightly revised its projections upward, expecting inflation to reach 9.2% in FY26, compared to its earlier estimate of 8.9%. However, inflationary pressures are anticipated to ease significantly, declining to 6% in FY27 as macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
In contrast, the Bangladesh government has set a more ambitious GDP growth target of 6.5% for the upcoming fiscal year, aligning with its broader vision of transforming the country into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034. The government is also aiming to contain inflation at 7.5% in FY27—higher than the IMF’s forecast.
Compared to other global lenders, the IMF’s outlook appears relatively optimistic. The World Bank, in its 8 April projection, forecasted Bangladesh’s growth at 3.9% for FY26, with a recovery to 4.6% in FY27. The World Bank also highlighted several structural challenges, including persistent inflation, a stressed banking sector, weak revenue mobilization, and sluggish private investment. External pressures, particularly from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, were also cited as risks to economic stability.
Similarly, the Asian Development Bank, in its Asian Development Outlook (April 2026), projected GDP growth of 4% in FY26 and 4.7% in FY27, up from an estimated 3.5% in FY25.
The ADB noted that inflation is likely to remain elevated at around 9% in FY26 due to high global energy prices and supply chain disruptions, before easing to 8.5% in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve.
However, downside risks to the outlook remain significant. Prolonged global conflicts could disrupt energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains, potentially driving up oil and gas prices. Such developments may intensify inflationary pressures in Bangladesh and limit the scope for effective macroeconomic policy interventions.
