Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns that Bangladesh’s economic growth will continue to lag behind its South Asian peers due to persistent weakness in exports. In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2025, released on 10th December, ADB kept its FY25 growth projection unchanged but revised down its FY26 forecast.
ADB previously estimated that Bangladesh’s GDP growth could drop to around 4% in FY25 — the lowest in recent years — before inching up to about 5% in FY26. The bank attributes the slower recovery to weak global demand, supply chain disruptions, and declining orders in key sectors such as ready-made garments. Import restrictions, high production costs, and currency volatility are further straining export-oriented industries.
Despite these challenges, ADB maintained the FY25 outlook, noting support from agriculture, services, and moderate domestic demand. Across South Asia, growth momentum remains strong, driven largely by India’s robust consumption and investment. However, Bangladesh and Nepal are expected to underperform due to export constraints and political uncertainty, respectively.
Regional inflation is forecast to ease to 3.3% in 2025, but Bangladesh is likely to see price levels remain broadly unchanged, indicating persistent pressures. While Asia-Pacific growth prospects have improved, ADB says Bangladesh continues to face export-related headwinds that will weigh on its overall economic performance.
