US tariffs imposed in August could slash nearly one-fifth of Vietnam’s exports to the USA, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) warns. As the sixth-largest exporter to the US with $136.5 billion in shipments last year, Vietnam faces the steepest hit in Southeast Asia.
UNDP estimates suggest the 20% duties could cut Vietnam’s exports to the US by over $25 billion, equal to a 19.2% decline—almost double the regional average impact of 9.7%. Only China would be hit harder in dollar terms.
Initial customs data show Vietnam’s exports to the US fell 2% in August from July, including a 5.5% drop in footwear, where it ranks as the world’s second-largest supplier. The World Bank has since downgraded Vietnam’s growth outlook.
Major brands like Nike, Adidas, and Puma, which rely heavily on Vietnamese factories, have declined to comment. The UNDP warned that Vietnam’s GDP could shrink by about 5% if the tariff effects fully unfold, though the blow may be softened by diversifying markets, absorbing costs, and stronger domestic demand.
Among Southeast Asian peers, Thailand could lose 12.7% of exports to the US, Malaysia 10.4%, and Indonesia 6.4%, but none face exposure as severe as Vietnam.
