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US cotton export may slash to 12.5mn bales in 2022-23; forecasts USDA

BTJ Desk Report
US cotton export may slash to 12.5mn bales in 2022-23; forecasts USDA

With world trade projected lower, the export forecast for cotton in the US for 2022-23 is 100,000 bales lower at 12.5 million bales while ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher.

Production is virtually unchanged at 13.8 million bales, less than 1% lower than in September 2022, media reported citing the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The 2022-23 US cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks compared with September 2022, as per the ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’ October report by the USDA.

The 2022-23 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 90.0 cents per pound, 6 cents lower than last month and slightly below the final 2021-22 record-high price of 91.4 cents.

In the 2022-23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower, and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher.

China’s historical consumption estimates are revised back to 2019-20, with the largest change in 2021-22, which is revised down to 2.0 million bales. China’s projected 2022-23 consumption is 1.0 million bales lower this month, as is India’s.

Pakistan’s is 500,000 bales lower, and consumption is also lower for Turkey, Mexico, and Vietnam.

World trade is projected nearly 1 million bales lower than it was in September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam.

Exports are lower for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece, and Mexico, as well as the United States. World production in 2022-23 is projected nearly 400,000 bales lower than it was a month ago, largely reflecting lower crops in Pakistan and Benin.


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