India’s cotton sector is poised for a recovery-led expansion in the 2026–27 marketing year, with both acreage and production expected to increase, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
In its latest assessment, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects India’s cotton area to grow by around 3% to 11.5 million hectares, driven by improved price expectations and stronger demand from the textile sector. Cotton production is forecast to rise by about 7% to 25.2 million bales (480 lb), equivalent to roughly 32.3 million bales (170 kg) or nearly 5.5 million tons.
The anticipated growth follows a challenging previous season affected by adverse weather. Improved yields—estimated at 477 kg per hectare, up 3% year-on-year—along with expectations of a normal monsoon, are likely to support higher output.
On the demand side, domestic mill consumption is projected to increase to 25.8 million bales, reflecting a positive outlook for India’s textile and apparel exports. Strengthening trade ties with key markets such as the EU and the UK are also expected to support demand for value-added textile products.
With improved domestic supply, cotton imports are forecast to decline to 3 million bales, while exports are expected to fall to 1.2 million bales due to tighter exportable surplus and a strategic shift toward higher-value textile exports.
Overall cotton availability is projected to rise to 39.3 million bales, supported by higher production and opening stocks. Ending stocks are expected to reach 12.3 million bales, resulting in a comfortable stock-to-use ratio of around 46%.
However, the report also highlights cost pressures, noting that higher crude oil prices could increase input costs such as fertilizers and chemicals, while simultaneously boosting cotton’s competitiveness against synthetic fibers like polyester.
Overall, India’s cotton outlook for 2026–27 indicates a steady recovery, underpinned by higher acreage, improved yields, and robust domestic demand, despite ongoing challenges in global competitiveness and input costs.
